NORTH KOREA
Source: The 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. January 29, 2019
Nuclear Ambitions
We continue to assess that North Korea is unlikely to give up all of its nuclear weapons and production capabilities, even as it seeks to negotiate partial denuclearization steps to obtain key U.S. and international concessions. North Korean leaders view nuclear arms as critical to regime survival, according to official statements and regime-controlled media.
In his 2019 New Year’s address, North Korean President Kim Jong Un pledged that North Korea would “go toward” complete denuclearization and promised not to make, test, use, or proliferate nuclear weapons. However, he conditioned progress on U.S. “practical actions.” The regime tied the idea of denuclearization in the past to changes in diplomatic ties, economic sanctions, and military activities.
In Singapore in June 2018, Kim said he sought the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” — a formulation linked to past demands that include an end to U.S. military deployments and exercises involving advanced U.S. capabilities
We continue to observe activity inconsistent with full denuclearization. North Korea has underscored its commitment to nuclear arms for years, including through an order to mass-produce weapons in 2018 and an earlier law — and constitutional change — that affirmed the country’s nuclear status.
Foreign Engagement
North Korea will continue its efforts to mitigate the effects of the US-led pressure campaign, most notably through diplomatic engagement, counter-pressure against the sanctions regime, and direct sanctions evasion.
Kim Jong Un has sought sanctions relief through a campaign of diplomatic engagement that included his first summits with foreign leaders since taking power in 2011. He met with South Korean President Moon Jae - in three times in 2018, leading to agreements to reconnect roads and rail lines, establish new military parameters, promote reforestation, and facilitate cultural exchanges.
Kim has also sought to align the region against the U.S.-led pressure campaign in order to gain incremental sanctions relief, and North Korean statements have repeatedly indicated that some sanctions relief is necessary for additional diplomacy to occur. In his annual New Year’s address, Kim linked U.S. sanctions to diplomatic progress and threatened to resume nuclear and missile testing.
Sanctions Evasion
We assess that sanctions continue to pressure the North Korean regime, despite North Korean sanctions evasion efforts. By late 2018, the enforcement of new UN sanctions had led to a precipitous decline in North Korea’s monthly export revenue compared with 2017, a change that also reduced imports.
North Korea generates revenue through overseas labor, cyber-theft operations, and illicit commercial exports of UN Security Council-prohibited goods.
Throughout 2018, the United States and its allies observed North Korean maritime vessels using at-sea, ship-to-ship transfers of petroleum from third-country tankers to acquire additional refined petroleum as a way to mitigate the effects of UNSC sanctions.
Conventional Military Capabilities
North Korea’s conventional capabilities continue to pose a threat to South Korea, Japan, and U.S. forces in the region. As a way to offset adversary military advantages, Kim Jong Un continues to pursue advanced conventional weapon programs and capabilities, including more accurate artillery and ballistic missile strike capabilities and UAVs.