The War on Terror is increasingly moving to Africa. For example, Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, continues to be under attack from jihadist terrorist groups Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa (ISIS-WA).
The Islamic State-Sahel Province is infiltrating Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Meanwhile, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, is now the most well-armed militant force in the Sahel, if not the entire world. Its 6,000+ fighters have stormed cities in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Benin – and have plans to expand their reign of terror.
The U.S. State Department reports that “these groups have conducted numerous attacks on government and civilian targets, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries, widespread destruction, the internal displacement of more than two million persons, and the external displacement of somewhat more than an estimated 300,000 Nigerian refugees to neighboring countries.”
They have “recruited and forcefully conscripted child soldiers; and
carried out scores of person-borne improvised explosive device attacks – many by coerced young women and girls – and other attacks on population centers in the Northeast and in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. Both groups subjected many women and girls to sexual and gender-based violence, including forced marriages, sexual slavery, and rape.” Violence by Islamic State loyalists in Northern Mozambique has displaced almost 670,000 people and thrown over a million people into a humanitarian crisis. The United Nations (UN) reports there are over 100 armed groups operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), including longtime rebel group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) which established ties with ISIS in late 2018. These groups routinely attack civilians, the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC), and UN peacekeepers.
In March 2021, the State Department “designated the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria – Democratic Republic of the Congo (ISIS-DRC) and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria – Mozambique (ISIS-Mozambique) as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and also designated ISIS-DRC and ISIS-Mozambique as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs), while also designating respective leaders of those organizations, Seka Musa Baluku and Abu Yasir Hassan, as SDGTs.”
The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence issued the following warnings:
THE SAHEL
"Since 2020, the Sahel has experienced seven irregular transfers of power because leaders have failed to address poor governance and public grievances or adequately resourced their militaries to achieve their missions. This turmoil raises the likelihood that these crises will metastasize and spillover to neighboring countries in Coastal West Africa in 2024. Many Coastal West African governments are facing potential coups because of lingering civil-military strains, growing public dissatisfaction with their failure to deliver improved governance and living standards, and an increase in foreign partners willing to condone military rule to focus on narrow security interests. Future coup leaders most likely will calculate that competition among major powers will create the space to weather any international fallout."
SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN
“Prolonged conflict heightens the risks of conflict spreading beyond Sudan’s borders, external actors joining the fray, and civilians facing death and displacement. The Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces are still fighting because their leaders calculate that they can achieve their goals absent a negotiated cessation of hostilities. With Sudan at the crossroads of the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and North Africa, it could once again become an ideal environment for terrorist and criminal networks. Sudan’s warring security forces may be receiving more foreign military support, which is likely to hamper progress on any future peace talks. Any increased involvement by one external actor could prompt others to quickly follow suit.”
HORN OF AFRICA
“Ethiopia is undergoing multiple, simultaneous internal conflicts, heightening interethnic tension and the risk of atrocities against civilians. A new conflict emerged in the Amhara Regional State in April 2023, when the Ethiopian Government clashed with Amhara militia and fighting persisted throughout the year. While the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in November 2022 between the Ethiopian Government and the Tigrayans ended a two-year war, unresolved territorial issues could lead to a resumption of conflict.”
Russia has opportunistically capitalized on domestic turmoil, offering rhetorical and, in some instances, substantive support to those seeking to oust regimes.
Mounting crises are beginning to fray regional institutions, further hampering their ability to develop effective regional security responses. In 2023, juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger formed a separate alliance to buck pressure from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), historically one of the most consistent bodies in trying to uphold anti-coup norms in the region.
Several Western partners are focusing on core security interests in the region – such as stemming migrant flows, containing geopolitical rivals, and CT gains – at the expense of longer-term support to democracy and governance.