The decades-long conflict between the Muslim Azerbaijanis and Christian Armenians – which ignited two wars and displaced over 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 alone – may finally be on the brink of a resolution. At the center of the dispute was the area known as Nagorno-Karabakh, which was taken by force in September 2023 by Azerbaijan.

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Once part of the Soviet Union, this land was a separatist ethnic-Armenian enclave located inside Azerbaijan. Today, it’s a mostly uninhabitable wasteland that lies in ruins, destroyed by war. Almost three decades ago, with help from Russia, Armenia captured this territory – even though it was internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan – claiming it was, as a homeland, essential to its identity.  The six-year war ended with hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis forced into exile.

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The Armenians felt justified in these actions because, during the fall of the Ottoman Empire, they had suffered what many throughout the world (including the United States) recognize as genocide as they were violently forced out of Turkey. On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan, with the help of Turkey, finally declared war to get the land back. After six weeks of brutal fighting – which included the use of drones by Azerbaijan, a game changer – Azerbaijan conquered the cities of Fizuli and Aghdam. Soon after, Russia helped broker a ceasefire – signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia – that allowed Azerbaijan to keep most of the territory it had regained. Most importantly, they were keeping Shusha, a town on a hill that holds great cultural significance for them.

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However, the agreement left the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, in control of the Armenians. Under Armenia’s security agreement with Russia, Russia committed to provide a peacekeeping force there for the next several years. Turkey also agreed to operate a peacekeeping command in Azerbaijan. The deal authorized a transport corridor from eastern Turkey through Nakhchivan (a territory that borders Turkey) to the Caspian Sea. In fact, no one benefited from this more than Turkey since the corridor grants them much greater access to Central Asia.

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Although this signaled progress, there were a couple of unresolved issues back then that, even today, need to be watched closely – one from a geopolitical perspective and one from a humanitarian perspective. From a geopolitical perspective, Turkey and Russia inserted themselves into this war and subsequent “peace” from the beginning.  Obviously, they were both operating from a place of 100% self-interest, and their opportunistic fingerprints were all over the terms of the ceasefire. Knowing the players, it’s safe to assume that they could not care less about the human beings involved. Rather, they wanted access – which they both got in spades. Also, to both Turkey and Russia’s benefit, the agreement left a ton of issues vague – like the fate of refugees and associated humanitarian issues, rebuilding, and the future role of the United Nations – and lots of wiggle room for the issues that were considered settled.

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From a humanitarian perspective, the bitterness and hatred between the Azerbaijanis and Armenians will likely last for generations to come.  As a preview: Years before this final showdown, Armenians in one town, Kelbajar, chose to burn their homes instead of seeing Azerbaijanis move into them. The good news is that these two historic enemies have been talking and negotiating amongst themselves and hopefully can finally settle on a pathway to peace once and for all.