As we can see even more clearly now, pulling out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018 was without a doubt one of the most irresponsible things Donald Trump did during his first time in office. The JCPOA was a landmark deal among Iran and Britain, China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia and the United States that placed significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. < Note: China, Russia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom all remained in the JCPOA after President Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement in 2018. >

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For one, leaving the deal made the United States look completely unreliable and put us at odds, yet again, with our European allies. In truth, we looked like total amateurs. But, far worse, it made the entire world much more vulnerable and unstable.

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Donald Trump had a huge problem with the deal from the jump, saying things like (this is a direct quote hence the discombobulated wording), “We gave them $150 billion and $1.8 billion and we got nothing... look at what they did to John Kerry and to President Obama. Look what happened, where they’re bringing planeloads of cash, planeloads, big planes, 757s, Boeing 757s coming in loaded up with cash. What kind of a deal is that?”

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This is a total distortion of what happened. As sanctions were lifted under the JCPOA, Iran regained access to billions of dollars of its own previously restricted assets abroad. Separately, the United States paid Iran $1.7 billion to settle a decades-old legal claim stemming from money Iran had paid the United States for military equipment before the 1979 Iranian Revolution that was never delivered. The $1.7 billion consisted of $400 million in Iranian funds held in a Foreign Military Sales account and approximately $1.3 billion to settle Iran’s claim for accrued interest, which was paid from the U.S. Treasury’s Judgment Fund. Because sanctions effectively prevented a normal dollar-denominated transfer to Iran, the settlement was paid in foreign currency and delivered in cash. The initial $400 million was transported by air, with the remaining roughly $1.3 billion subsequently disbursed in two additional installments.

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Either way, even if you disagree with the deal or the way the Obama administration handled it, it had already happened. The money had already been paid, so why in the world would you blow everything up after the most controversial, hard-to-swallow part of the deal was already in our rearview?

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The JCPOA was far from perfect, but the agreement achieved a major goal: The Iranian government agreed to cut its stockpile to no more than 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium; agreed not to enrich uranium beyond 3.67 percent; and agreed that, for 15 years, uranium enrichment would take place only at Natanz. Iran’s Fordow facility would remain open but would no longer enrich uranium or contain nuclear material. Most importantly, Iran accepted an extensive monitoring and verification regime that gave the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) substantially greater access to and information about Iran’s nuclear program.

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And make no mistake: Despite President Trump’s claims that Iran had violated the agreement, when he withdrew the United States from the JCPOA the IAEA was reporting that Iran was implementing its nuclear-related commitments.

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On May 9, 2018 – one day after President Trump announced the U.S. withdrawal – IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano stated that “Iran is subject to the world’s most robust nuclear verification regime under the JCPOA, which is a significant verification gain.” He added: “As of today, the IAEA can confirm that the nuclear-related commitments are being implemented by Iran.”

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Surprising nobody but Donald Trump, not long after our exit, what had become a relatively stable situation devolved into a complete mess – a Donald Trump specialty.

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Now operating alone, the first Trump administration tried a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, imposing economic sanctions against the country, individuals, companies, and financial institutions that did business with Iran. While the U.S. sanctions did have a devastating effect, they did not deliver the knockout blow the administration envisioned. At least fourteen banks continued to do business with Tehran.

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The U.S. also designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization – the first time the United States had applied that designation to part of another government – and seized Iranian petroleum cargoes aboard foreign-flagged vessels. Iran seized foreign oil tankers and shot down a U.S. surveillance drone, while the United States destroyed what it said was an Iranian drone that had threatened the USS Boxer. The U.S. also deployed additional forces to the Persian Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, as confrontations in and around the Strait of Hormuz intensified.

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But the worst part was that Iran wasted little time getting back into the nuclear bomb-making business – with gusto. Beginning in 2019, Iran progressively exceeded the JCPOA limit on its enriched-uranium stockpile, eventually breaching its 3.67 percent enrichment ceiling and expanding its use of advanced centrifuges. By September 2020, the IAEA reported that Iran possessed more than 2,100 kilograms of enriched uranium, many times the amount permitted under the agreement. These actions helped Iran significantly reduce its “breakout time,” the estimated time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon.

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By 2020, Iran was also moving critical nuclear infrastructure underground. Following the destruction of an above-ground centrifuge-assembly facility at Natanz, Iran began constructing a deeply buried replacement complex in the mountains south of the site, making important parts of its nuclear program substantially harder to destroy from the air.

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This entire ordeal escalated even further with the January 2020 U.S. drone assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, a senior official of the Islamic Republic of Iran who was close to its then supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Suleimani was also the commander of the Quds Force, an agency that is part of Iran’s formal military structure and responsible for Iran’s covert military operations. Two days after he was killed, Iran announced that it would no longer observe the JCPOA’s operational limits on centrifuges, enrichment capacity, enrichment levels or its enriched-uranium stockpile.

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Then after the November 2020 assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in an attack Iran attributed to Israel, Iran enacted legislation accelerating its nuclear activities. In January 2021, it began enriching uranium to 20 percent at Fordow, an underground facility where the JCPOA had prohibited enrichment altogether. Iran eventually enriched uranium to 60 percent, far above the JCPOA’s 3.67 percent ceiling and much closer to weapons-grade material.

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Another thing the administration naïvely envisioned was being able to control issues within the JCPOA without being a part of it. This led to some embarrassing moments, like in August 2020, when the United States attempted to invoke the UN “snapback” mechanism to restore sanctions on Iran. Britain, France and Germany rejected the attempt, arguing that the United States could no longer use the mechanism after withdrawing from the JCPOA. China and Russia agreed, and 13 of the Security Council’s 15 members rejected the U.S. position.

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Earlier that same month, the Security Council had rejected a U.S. proposal to extend UN restrictions on conventional-arms transfers involving Iran. The vote was striking: Only the United States and Dominican Republic voted in favor; China and Russia voted against; and the other 11 members – including Britain, France and Germany – abstained.

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Cut to June 22, 2025, when the confrontation reached an entirely different level. During the 12-day Israel-Iran war, the United States launched Operation Midnight Hammer, directly attacking Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities. Seven B-2 stealth bombers dropped 14 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs, while a U.S. submarine launched more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles. The strikes came during an Israeli campaign that also targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, senior military officials and nuclear scientists.

 

Next, of course, came Operation Epic Fury.