The Middle East is at a crossroads. The region is either going to emerge as a worldwide player – with normalized relations, increased trade, and global cooperation – or collapse into a dodgy patchwork of a few strong nation-states scattered among a dangerous minefield of poverty, terrorism and war.

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With Assad gone, regional power dynamics are already shifting, with Iranian influence diminishing and Turkey playing a more pivotal, expanded role. Although Turkey is not an official ally of H.T.S., there seems to be an open line of communication and quiet collaboration. Moreover, Assad’s ousting is a huge defeat for Russia and Iran, who Assad relied on heavily for military support and advice. Iran helped him mobilize tens of thousands of militia fighters from Iraq, Lebanon, and Afghanistan, and Putin provided weapons and air defenses. Now, Russia stands to lose its military bases in Syria, and Iran’s forward defense strategy has been jeopardized and its arms supply route to its Lebanon proxy Hezbollah potentially disrupted.

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Not only have Russia and Iran lost an important strategic foothold in the region, but Assad’s fall reveals the very embarrassing fact that neither country is always able to support and protect its allies – which could prove to be a huge opening for America.

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But make no mistake, Iran is not out of the game. Before Hamas launched its brutal attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, killing over 1,200 Israelis and kidnapping over 200 more, Saudi Arabia was prepared to recognize Israel in a deal giving the Saudis a larger defense pact with the United States in exchange for Riyadh normalizing relations with Israel. One of the best parts of the pact for the United States was that the collaboration would have further isolated Iran.

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This deal was part of a much broader effort by the first Trump administration – called the Abraham Accords – to establish formal diplomatic relations among Israel and several Arab countries including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. These countries joined Jordan (1994) and Egypt (1979) in normalizing relations with Israel. The Abraham Accords were meant to extend beyond economic issues and intelligence sharing and hopefully produce cultural exchanges as well.

 

​On paper, the concept behind this endeavor was awesome, but the Trump administration’s blind spot was Palestine. The entire strategy behind the Abraham Accords seemed to be built around three thoughts: 1) the notion that Palestine was so weakened and marginalized that Israel could just bypass the conflict altogether, 2) the United States could weaken Palestine even further by withdrawing all its humanitarian funding, which Donald Trump did in 2018 when he cut over $200 million in direct aid to Palestine as well as funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), a UN body that supported over 5 million Palestinian refugees, and 3) the Sunni Arab leaders in the region were sick of Palestinian leadership and, despite the suffering of the Palestinian people, were ready to do things differently.

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In fact, Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, former adviser, and main cheerleader behind the Abraham Accords, said as much in a 2021 Wall Street Journal article when he wrote, “One of the reasons the Arab-Israeli conflict persisted for so long was the myth that it could be solved only after Israel and the Palestinians resolved their differences. That was never true. The Abraham Accords exposed the conflict as nothing more than a real-estate dispute between Israelis and Palestinians that need not hold up Israel’s relations with the broader Arab world.”

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Good Lord. He cannot be serious with this. It’s comments like this that show these people knew (and know) nothing about the centuries of complicated and heart wrenching history that governs the Middle East.

 

The regional reaction to Israel’s airstrikes in Gaza between May 11-15, 2021 – two months after Jared wrote those words – proved this. Not long after the Israel bombs, shells and missiles started raining down, many Arab countries quickly condemned Israel’s role in the attacks. It probably didn’t help that these Arab governments witnessed the Israelis’ attack on the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, one of Islam’s most sacred sites, during their holy month of Ramadan, no less.

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Foreign Ministry issued a statement criticizing “acts of violence committed by right-wing extremist groups in the occupied East Jerusalem” and called on Israeli leadership to “assume responsibility toward de-escalation and putting an end to all aggressions and practices that perpetuate tension and hostility.” The statement ended with the UAE urging “maximum self-restraint to avoid the region slipping into new levels of instability in a way that threatens peace.”

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Bahrain and others shared similar concerns, with the Saudi Arabia Foreign Ministry condemning “in the strongest terms the Israeli occupation’s blatant assaults on the sanctity of the holy Aqsa Mosque, and on the security and safety of worshipers.” They also called on leaders around the world to “hold the Israeli occupation responsible for this escalation, and to immediately stop its escalatory actions, which violate all international norms and laws.”

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An opinion piece by political science lecturer Talal Bannan, published in the Saudi newspaper Okaz, went way further, calling Israel a “racist, hateful entity” that exists only “through aggression, racism and raping of land.” Bannan went on to say that any Arab country that enters into an agreement with Israel “acquiesces to Israel’s aggressive behavior.” This wouldn’t seem like a big deal except that nothing gets printed in Saudi Arabia without the approval of the highest leaders in the kingdom.

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Now, the aftermath of the October 7th attacks has seemingly put the brakes on any further relationship thaw between Israel and other Arab countries. The naïve decision to take Palestine off the table during the Abraham Accord negotiations has come back to haunt everyone.

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The main issue for the leaders of many Arab countries – and many Americans, for that matter – is the way Israel has conducted its side of the war. Many believe Israel has bombed indiscriminately, killing tens of thousands of innocent civilians. The heartbreaking images cascading out of Gaza certainly haven’t helped…. Palestinian mothers and fathers in unbearable pain, grieving over the bodies of their dead children. Children frantically crying and running aimlessly against the backdrop of bombed out, crumbling buildings. Nor did it help that Israel blatantly blocked humanitarian aid as Palestinians starved to death.

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As a result, the path forward for these Arab countries has become pretty clear. On September 19, 2024, in his version of a State of the Union, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said, “The kingdom will not cease its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without one. We thank all the countries that recognized the Palestinian state as an embodiment of international legitimacy, and we urge other countries to take similar steps.”

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Likewise, the UAE foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed said his country will not support Israel in its “day after” plan in Gaza unless a Palestinian state is established: “The United Arab Emirates is not ready to support the day after the war in Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

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Suffice it to say Iran has pounced on this golden opportunity, and Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries seem to be warming to the idea of a reset on relations with their former nemesis. In March 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement to restore diplomatic relations – after direct negotiations led by Chinese President Xi Jinping – meaning, Iran has now restored diplomatic relations with all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries besides Bahrain.

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In October 2024, the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi visited Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Jordan and Turkey before traveling to Egypt – the first visit there by an Iranian foreign minister in twelve years. That same month, Araghchi and the foreign ministers of the GCC states met over breakfast while they attended the third Asian Cooperation Dialogue summit in Doha. This is the first public meeting between Iran and GCC foreign ministers as a group. One month later, leaders from across the Arab world gathered in Saudi Arabia.

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While all this signals a renewed willingness to cooperate, peace between these former rivals is far from a slam dunk. Issues like Iran’s nuclear program and its distrust of international rules and institutions will be difficult to resolve. Iran’s occupation of three of the UAE’s islands (Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb) is another obvious issue. But other issues – like Iran’s past and continued support of terrorist groups and sectarian militias – seem almost impossible to reconcile. It will be hard for Saudi Arabia to forget, for example, that Iran armed and aided the Houthis in Yemen as they brutally attacked the kingdom for a decade… especially since Iran still backs the Houthis as they attack ships in the Red Sea and shut down critical shipping lanes. Sadly, even with President Trump’s air strikes against them, the Houthis are going to be a chronic problem because they are remarkably resilient. They also control a territory over thirty times bigger than Hizballah’s, and they command roughly 25 million people.

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Likewise, although Hamas (which is part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”) has been severally weakened by Israel, Hezbollah (a Shia Muslim political and military group in Lebanon that is also part of the “Axis of Resistance”) has been engaged in multiple violent conflicts with Israel in Lebanon.

The latest round between these two started in October 2023, when Hezbollah started firing rockets and mortar shells at Israel after the start of the Gaza war to show support for its ally Hamas. Naturally, Israel responded with strikes of its own. A year later, the ongoing conflict escalated when Israel launched air strikes against Hezbollah – followed by a ground invasion of southern Lebanon – demanding that the Lebanese people who had been forced from their homes by Hezbollah’s rocket attacks be able to return (its estimated that over a million people have been displaced in Lebanon since October 2023).

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< A ceasefire arrangement between the two, agreed to on November 27, 2024, required Hezbollah and Israeli forces to leave southern Lebanon by February 18, 2025. However, as of the end of February, Israel still had troops in five strategic locations across southern Lebanon. Although Israel called this a “temporary measure,” Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the ceasefire “must be respected” and Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem said “there can be no excuses” for any delay past the deadline. >

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Hezbollah is now severely weakened. Once considered one of the most heavily armed, non-state military forces on the planet, this latest conflict with Israel has left much of its infrastructure destroyed; most of its arsenal depleted; and hundreds of its fighters and many of its senior military and political leaders dead. This – along with everything else happening in the Middle East – positions the United States perfectly. And we have many cards we can play.

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Let’s start with Lebanon. It’s in the best interest of the United States – and Israel and the amazing Lebanese people – to end Hezbollah’s forty-year reign of terror once and for all. There are many reasons to believe this is now possible. After not having a functioning government since 2022, Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Aoun, and his new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, are moderate and widely seen within the country as patriots. A former head of the army, President Aoun has said that he believes the state has “the exclusive right to bear arms.”

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This seems to be a reference to UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and brings us to the first thing we can do: Ensure Resolution 1701 is fully enforced. Passed in 2006, this resolution – that says, “there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state” and that the area south of the Blue Line “should be free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Lebanese authorities and UN peacekeepers” effectively ended the war and created a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon. However, Hezbollah has consistently ignored it, building extensive infrastructure below the established boundaries.

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Even though the new cabinet under Nawaf Salam officially excludes Hezbollah, its members are split evenly among Lebanon’s religious groups – and the Amal Movement, a Lebanese political party, militia, and Hezbollah ally, was allowed to choose four ministers. Like it or not, Hezbollah is a Shiite Muslim political party in Lebanon as well as a militant group. However, pressure can be applied to force them to make a choice: Participate in Lebanese politics as a civilized political party or continue to be targeted by Israel and the United States as terrorists.

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There are other things we can do beyond stopping Hezbollah’s terrorist activities and offering Lebanon economic assistance to help rebuild and military aid to strengthen its military (which we should do immediately). For one, we can encourage both sides to draw a mutually agreed-on, UN-recognized border between Lebanon and Israel. We can also capitalize on recent events to help bring the highly diverse country closer together. This means reassuring the Shiites that the United States will support them as equal citizens of the Lebanese state (so they don’t have to rely on Hezbollah’s scare tactics anymore).

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Now back to Syria, where there are also chips America can play. For instance, before it was ravaged by civil war, Syria’s main export was oil, and agriculture was a prosperous part of its economy. Now however, captagon – an illegal methamphetamine-like drug that we now know helped prop up Assad’s regime – rules the day (it was confirmed after Assad bounced that he had indeed become the head of one of the most profitable drug-smuggling rings in the Middle East, playing a leading role in the $10 billion+ captagon market). It goes without saying that Syria must return to more stable (and legal) sources of income, which means it needs to bring back its oil production. Enter the United States! Because most of Syria’s active wells are in the northeast of the country – and that part of the country is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces and its 100,000+ fighters – this is something we can help with.

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We and the Kurds have huge leverage here because almost a third of Syrian territory is controlled by the SDF. Having oil production in that area to use as a chit will be incredibly important as the SDF fights to maintain their independence, both politically and militarily, within the framework of a united Syria. Further, since the Assad regime is no longer a threat, another thing we can do is look seriously at lifting the debilitating sanctions that have crippled Syria’s economy and taken them out of the global market. This will allow Syria to rebuild, fuel economic growth and development, and lift 90 percent of its population out of the poverty they are mired in.

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We can also seriously consider removing the terrorist designation we have given Ahmed al-Sharaa and H.T.S. and encourage the United Nations to do the same. After all, al-Sharaa can’t very well function effectively as a head of state with a $10 million bounty on his head.

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Of course, lifting sanctions and removing any terrorist designation can only come with substantial conditions. For example, we must make certain that women, non-Muslims (including Christians, Druzes and Yazidis), and LGBT Syrians are treated fairly and with respect, and that they can live their lives with zero fear of vengeance. It would also be super-duper if H.T.S. demands that Russia’s military leave the country. And last, but certainly not least, we need to know beyond a shadow of a doubt that our amazing allies, the Kurds, are fully protected and can – and will – live without fear.

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But the most important thing we can do is stay. As of December 2024, there were 2,000 U.S. personnel in Syria. Our continued presence there is critically important, not only for the Syrians but also ourselves. For one, we finally have a chance to make it up to the SDF and prove to them – and the entire Middle East – that the United States is not, in fact, a fair-weathered friend after all. In fact, we are back better than ever! Our support and protection are a matter of life and death at this point because the SDF remains a major target for Erdoğan.

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We just cannot express enough how imperative this relationship is to our future safety and security. The Kurds – both in Syria and Iraq – are an essential piece of this puzzle moving forward. Not only do we share the same values and beliefs in tolerance and democratic principles, but these faithful allies of ours know how to fight terrorism and WIN! They have already proven this time and time again. To a large degree, sustained stability in the region depends on them.

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We have proven this kind of light-footprint, low-cost operation can be very successful – in fact, we have already proven this right there in Syria. If the United States leaves a second too soon, we will be forced to eventually return to far worse and more dangerous conditions than ever before. We promise you.

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We should know this from our earlier experiences in Iraq, where we pulled out based on an arbitrary deadline as opposed to conditions on the ground. Our premature exit enabled the Islamic State to regroup and expand, which eventually forced our return to Iraq. This will happen again. Believe it. Need we remind everyone that the Kurds are still detaining over 10,000 die-hard ISIS terrorists? We simply cannot allow terrorist turmoil to spread – which means we’re crazy if we leave Iraq again. Yes, you heard that right. We’re about to make the same mistake as we did before. Again. In September 2024, Iraq and the United States reached a tentative agreement for the withdrawal of the 2,500 U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq. Under the plan, hundreds of troops will leave Iraq by September 2025, with the remainder leaving by the end of 2026.

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This is a mistake of gargantuan proportions. For one, we are all but admitting a massive defeat by capitulating to the political factions in Baghdad that align with Iran, a point made even clearer by the 200+ attacks on U.S. forces made in the months leading to this latest agreement that could be easily seen as an attempt to bully us out. But a more important point is that these troops are in Iraq to continue our fight against the Islamic State – a fight that is far from over. In fact, just one month before this newest agreement was reached, U.S. and Iraqi forces together launched an attack on multiple ISIS bunkers in western Iraq that killed six senior ISIS leaders.

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Don’t be fooled. The threat of global terrorism is as real and dangerous as ever. Over the past decade, there has been an unprecedented cycle of jihadist mobilization as Islamist violent extremist groups leverage new technologies, social media, and sophisticated messaging to recruit foreign fighters to their cause. The Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), which is active primarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan, recently claimed responsibility for a major attack in Russia and is thought to be behind another in Iran. Although the ISIS caliphate is gone, the group still has cells and affiliates scattered across Africa and Southeast Asia. The fall of the Assad regime has raised serious concerns about a potential resurgence there. Before his death by an American drone, Ayman al-Zawahiri significantly empowered local franchises of al-Qaeda, encouraging them to participate in acts of governance and build their very own civic society.

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The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community warned: