Let’s be crystal clear: We cannot under any circumstances allow China to invade Taiwan. Period. Full stop.

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There are multiple reasons this cannot happen. For one, a Chinese attack could pull Japan – and potentially the United States – into the conflict. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has said some Chinese military action against Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially allowing Japanese military intervention.

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While the U.S.-Japan security treaty does not automatically require America to enter a Taiwan war simply because Japan does, if China attacked Japanese territory or U.S. forces stationed in Japan, America’s treaty obligations could come directly into play.

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A Chinese invasion or blockade would also be an economic catastrophe since Taiwan sits at a crucial maritime crossroads that a huge portion of global trade passes through (with crucial chokepoints like the Bashi Channel sitting at Taiwan’s edges). It’s impossible to overstate the importance of the South China Sea to worldwide commerce. Roughly one-third of global maritime shipping – trillions and trillions of dollars – passes through the South China Sea, making it one of the most important commercial waterways on Earth.

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Not to mention that, if China cut off Taiwan’s chip exports to American companies, our tech industry – heck, the entire U.S. economy – would be paralyzed.

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A 2022 confidential report commissioned by the Semiconductor Industry Association and reviewed by The New York Times revealed that America losing access to chips from Taiwan would lead to the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression. U.S. economic output would drop 11 percent, twice as much as the 2008 recession.

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Four years later, a 2026 Bloomberg Economics analysis estimated that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan that draws the United States into the conflict could cost the global economy $10.6 trillion – nearly 10 percent of worldwide GDP – in the first year alone. U.S. GDP could fall 6.6 percent. Much of the damage would come from losing access to Taiwan’s semiconductor production, which currently accounts for roughly 62 percent of the world’s cutting-edge logic chips. Even a yearlong blockade of Taiwan, without a full-scale war, could reduce global GDP by 5.3 percent and U.S. GDP by 3.2 percent.

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But the strategic and human consequences could be even greater. A forcible takeover of democratic Taiwan would dramatically alter the military balance in East Asia and increase pressure on U.S. allies including Japan and the Philippines.

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When Washington established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979, the United States recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) government as the sole legal government of China. But it did not recognize Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan. Instead, Washington merely “acknowledged” the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China.

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Congress simultaneously passed the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 which obligates the U.S. to assist Taiwan in maintaining its defensive capability, demands peaceful resolutions between Beijing and Taipei, and forbids unilateral changes to the status quo by either side. While there is no formal defense pact, meaning the U.S. isn’t automatically required to go to war if China attacks Taiwan, we are required to make defensive weapons available to Taiwan and maintain the capacity to resist force or coercion against it.

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We cannot ignore the danger here. In late December 2025 – in what China called a “stern warning” against outside interference in Chinese affairs, after the Trump/Vance administration approved an $11 billon U.S. arms sales package to Taiwan – the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fired over two dozen long-range rockets into the waters around Taiwan and surrounded the island with bombers, fighter jets, and new amphibious assault ships, while its vessels and aircraft practiced repelling an approaching enemy force. These live-fire military exercises sure looked a lot like a practice run for an assault on the democratically governed island.

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Now, as of August 2026, the Trump/Vance administration is procrastinating on a $14 billion arms package to Taiwan – in addition to $30 billion of U.S. approved weapons to Taiwan that have yet to be delivered – enabling China and further undermining U.S. deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. We need to get these air-defense systems, missiles, drones and other weapons to Taiwan to strengthen deterrence and to allow Taiwan to defend itself against China when – not if – it comes to that.